Q3 GDP data tomorrow: Growth seen at 6.8% with slight moderation likely in economic activity, says SBI's Ecowrap
READ HERE: India's GDP growth to moderate in Q3 & Q4; Capex to remain tepid: ICRA's Aditi Nayar The brokerage further informed that its estimates are corroborated with the in-house developed SBI-ANN (Artificial Neural Network) model, with 30 high-frequency indicators. ANN has been trained for the quarterly GDP data from 2011Q4 to 2020Q4 and the in-sample forecast performance of the model in the training period has been precise.
According to the government’s first estimates, the Indian economy will grow at 7.3 percent in FY24, faster than the RBI’s upwardly revised estimate of 7 percent. The World Bank expects the Indian economy to grow 6.3 percent in FY24, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised its estimate from 6.3 percent to 6.5 percent.
In the preceding July-September quarter of the current fiscal (Q2FY24), the Indian economy grew 7.6 percent, remaining the fastest-growing major economy in the world, according to GDP data released in November 2023. Globally, the likelihood of the global economy exhibiting stronger-than-expected growth in 2024 has brightened in recent months, with risks broadly balanced.
Accordingly, the IMF upgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025 in its Jan’24 World Economic Outlook, it noted. On the flip side, the UK and Japan entering recession signal a need for reevaluation, worsened by Bundesbank's warning about stress on Germany's economy.
This echoes a global trend, with countries from various regions, particularly the EU, facing divergent economic challenges post pandemic, stated SBI. Moreover, quantitative easing and price inflation have strained economies worldwide, exemplified by China's deflation worries due to a property
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