Retail inflation likely to be steady at 4.87% in April: Mint poll
Mint showed. Projections from the economists varied between 4.70% and 5.10%, with only four anticipating the inflation rate to exceed 5%. The official data is set to be released on 13 May.
While food prices are expected to have risen since March, a favourable base effect could prevent year-on-year inflation from increasing significantly in April. “Price pressures are rising, particularly for food, which is largely seasonal. However, these will likely be offset by a favourable base.
Core inflation should continue its recent pace of moderation," Shreya Sodhani, Regional Economist, Barclays. Even though inflation has significantly softened in recent months, it remains above the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%, keeping policymakers vigilant. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das had reiterated concerns about persistent volatility in food inflation, emphasizing the vulnerability of the inflation trajectory to supply-side shocks.
"The success of the disinflation process so far should not distract us from the vulnerability of the inflation trajectory to the frequent incidence of supply-side shocks," Das had said during the April monetary policy meeting. With the onset of summer, price pressures typically escalate for perishable food items, particularly vegetables. However, if the India Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast for an above-normal monsoon holds true, some relief may be expected.
Read more on livemint.com
