Tech Often Disappoints Short-Term. Long-Term, It Can Overachieve.

livemint.com:

Emerging technology often enters the scene amid a blaze of excitement, only to disappoint in the short-term. Over the long-term, however, that same technology often overperforms. Broadband, smartphones, and cloud computing all faced their share of skepticism before adoption exploded.

Apple’s initial effort in tablet computing, the Newton, didn’t last, but it set the stage for the success of the iPad years later. What does that tell us, then, about how companies can assess the potential impact of a new generation of emerging technology, from artificial intelligence, to quantum computing, autonomous vehicles, crypto, blockchain and the metaverse? Above all, companies must develop an investment approach—and a funding mechanism—that fosters a deep understanding of emerging technology and allows them to react with flexibility should conditions abruptly change. “Something usually goes wrong, that’s the way life works," said Brad Smith, Microsoft president and vice chairman, during a panel discussion at London-based policy institute Chatham House that was livestreamed to registered guests.

“But it is so hard to predict it in a fast-moving technology field. One needs agility and humility to keep adapting." These are crucial skills. Half of the companies that constituted the Fortune 500 in the year 2000 had fallen off the list by 2017, a high rate of turnover that reflects the ways in which technology has made it easier for new companies to enter a market and take share.