The Israel-Hamas ceasefire may not end the war
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. There is cause for relief and hope as Israel, and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire that brings a pause to the most catastrophic 15-month conflict.
On the face of it, the ceasefire deal is cautiously scripting the roadmap ahead, marked by three clear phases, each lasting for six weeks- 42 days approximately. So why does the ceasefire deal, still eludes trust and confidence towards peace? And why does it not signal an end to war? Going by history, it goes without saying that whenever Israel and Palestine have inched closer to a peace accord, signs of discord are discernible both through politics and violence.
So the key questions: first, what are the risks and challenges ahead in terms of implementation of the deal, and who are the potential spoilers? Second, at this point of the conflict cycle, Hamas stands significantly weakened, but despite the might of Israel, it is definitely not rooted out as a relevant actor. In such a scenario, will the far right in Israel, and particularly the spoilers in the Netanyahu coalition concede to anything short of total elimination of Hamas from Gaza? On the other side, will the Iran-backed “axis of resistance"- that also includes the Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen- respect the Israel-Hamas deal? And relatedly, will Israel keep a security presence in Gaza, and if yes, will that be acceptable to Hamas? Third, while the drums of humanitarian aid and reconstruction sound both a relief and dire necessity, it still remains silent on how this would be sketched out and translated in the third and the most crucial phase of the ceasefire agreement.
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