Trump presidency 2.0: A sequel likely to outdo his first stint in power
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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Sequels rarely have the same impact as the original. The second Donald Trump presidency that the good people of America have foisted on themselves, and the world, is likely to prove different.
Trump could double down on his disruptive campaign promises and create havoc on a scale unseen during his 2017-20 term. His promise to levy an import duty of 60% on shipments from China and 10-20% across the board, if acted upon, is likely to set off a trade war that would lower economic growth for the entire world. His oft-stated conviction that climate change is a hoax could lead him to reverse several of the Joe Biden administration’s green initiatives, save those for electric mobility, which, thanks to Trump’s proximity to Tesla chief Elon Musk, could be spared.
Trump and his Veep-elect J.D. Vance espouse letting the world take care of itself while the US does likewise. This would erode the faith of Europe and the Asian duo of Japan and South Korea in the reliability of America’s nuclear shield, plausibly inducing them to develop their own nukes.
Europe may find that French President Emmanuel Macron’s insistence on strategic capability outside the US-led Nato was prescience rather than self-projection. The world could see stepped-up spending on arms, even as weaker economic growth hits living standards. Trump’s campaign held out three sources of US inflation.
Steep import tariffs would make everyday goods dearer in America. Immigration clamps would reduce the supply of relatively cheap labour, tighten its labour market and push up wages. Bigger pay-cheques would be passed on as higher prices.
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