West Asian flare-up: A nuclear Iran seems dangerously close

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. There are good reasons for Israel not to hit Iran’s nuclear programme in its coming retaliation against the Islamic Republic. Yet the logic for a preemptive strike has never been as compelling, precisely because Tehran’s case for building a nuclear arsenal has also never been as strong.

This is inherently unstable—and dangerous. The last few weeks have transformed Iran’s security situation, no less than Israel’s. Until then, Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spent decades nurturing to threaten Israel, had looked formidable.

But after one of the most effective decapitation operations in military history, Iran can no longer rely on Hezbollah for its “forward defence." Hezbollah’s troops are in a fight for their own survival. The need to re-establish this lost deterrence led directly to Iran’s massed ballistic missile strike at Israeli targets. This was, as I wrote at the time, a strategic mistake.

Unlike a previous such demonstration in April, Iran’s missile command was really trying this time. They gave no lengthy notice. They used only the most potent weapons in the Iranian arsenal, ballistic missiles, and these were bunched so as to saturate and penetrate Israel’s air defences.

A significant number made it through, yet their impact appears to have been minimal. This has created the worst of all worlds. What the strike in fact demonstrated was Israel’s ability to absorb Iran’s best shot.

The targets were largely military bases, including airfields, and initial reports suggest the damage sustained was limited. Israel has long prepared for this, and not just by developing air defences. Civilians have bunkers to go to.