Bitcoin (BTCUSD), though volatile, has outstripped the returns of the S&P 500 since the beginning of September. The largest cryptocurrency has benefited from investor optimism driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the U.S. presidential elections, among other factors.
Since the beginning of September, bitcoin has gained more than 14%, while the S&P 500 has risen roughly 3%.
Just like stocks, bitcoin didn't have a particularly great start to September after a worse-than-expected jobs report raised concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Bitcoin was trading below $60,000 at that time, but signals from the Fed about a potential rate cut coming soon helped the cryptocurrency gain some momentum.
The Fed announced a jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut on Sept. 18 and set expectations for more to come, sending bitcoin higher. Lower rates translate into lower yields for Treasurys, and that makes riskier assets such as bitcoin more attractive to investors.
Still, macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on bitcoin. Any economic data that suggests that the Fed could deviate from its rate-cutting cycle or that a recession is imminent has the power to derail this bitcoin rally.
There may also have been some sudden shift out of crypto assets into Chinese equities after the government there announced a blockbuster stimulus package in late September, but that trade has lost some steam as the optimism around more measures began fading.
Bitcoin traded around $68,000 Wednesday after three robust days of inflows for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). According to data from Farside Investors, bitcoin ETFs have seen nearly $1.2 billion in net inflows since last Friday.
U.S. presidential elections have also played a role in bitcoin
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