Don Com & Kamala Drama: Despite Harris’ winning performance on tele-Tuesday, it’s probably still Advantage Trump
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris faced off physically for the first time in the US presidential elections on Tuesday (Wednesday morning in India). The first TV debate between the Republican and Democratic candidates was never going to beat the ratings of the last one — a candidate face-off that had led to the collapse of Joe Biden's re-election bid.
Instant surveys were unanimous that Harris was the winner. But there's no evidence the Democratic candidate will benefit enough to move the needle. What she did accomplish was to reassure her own base that they had a candidate who was sound of mind and body. A few independent voters, a shrinking cohort in US politics, may also be persuaded to plump for her. Nearly a third of voters had indicated they wanted to know more about her.
Harris is leading ever so slightly in the polls taken before the summit. That is the popular vote. What matters in a US presidential election is securing the electoral college, in other words, majority of the 6-7 swing states. Of the last dozen polls in the US, those in August all gave a slight edge to Harris in the popular vote. Of the last five polls, all in September, Trump leads in two, and one is a tie.
The excitement caused by Harris' surprise candidacy, and the Democratic Party convention has worn off. This week's debate could have reversed this — but probably won't.
Harris and Trump had a set of pre-selected attack points. Trump was broadly on message. Immigration and migrant crimes were his first, second and third choice, and no
