Donald Trump winning US elections? Famed polling guru Nate Silver's 'gut' prediction
Nate Silver in an op-ed for the New York Times wrote that his «gut says» that former US President Donald Trump will win the November 5 election, while warning that polling data indicate the race could still go either way. «But don't trust anyone's gut, even mine,» he wrote in a New York Times op-ed. His current model gives Trump, the Republican nominee, a 53.1 per cent chance of a second term in the White House.
Nate Silver's model currently rates the Republican nominee with a 53.1 percent chance of becoming the 47th president of the United States. “In an election where the seven battleground states are all polling within a percentage point or two, 50-50 is the only responsible forecast," he wrote in his forecast.
«So OK, I'll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,» Nate wrote. «But I don’t think you should put any value whatsoever on anyone’s gut — including mine. Instead, you should resign yourself to the fact that a 50-50 forecast really does mean 50-50. And you should be open to the possibility that those forecasts are wrong, and that could be the case equally in the direction of Trump or Harris.»
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«It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them,” he wrote. Nate Silver, who has tracked the last five presidential elections, first rose to prominence with his accurate prediction of Barack
