Haryana and J&K: States of surprise for BJP and Congress

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. For the second straight time in India, election results have upended poll predictions, turning political parties introspective and adding intrigue to the next round of state elections scheduled for later this year. In Haryana, while the Bharatiya Janata Party exceeded expectations for a third straight term, the Congress was left stumped by its underwhelming show.

In Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP, which altered the political status of the erstwhile state in 2019, has been kept out of power by the National Conference-Congress combine. When the dust settled on Tuesday evening, there was something for all sides in the updated assembly map of India, except the Congress. The BJP kept hold of a state, and another regional party returned to power.

But the Congress, in spite of the tailwinds that were projected for it, faltered in wresting back power in Haryana. In India’s states, it is still the disparate band of regional parties that has a larger footprint than the two primary national parties. That was the case in May 2019, and remains so in October 2024.

But the BJP has made gains and is closing in—it currently has a chief minister in 13 states, up from 11 states in May 2019. Further, BJP's all-India seat count has increased from 1,364 to 1,564, buoyed by retentions, and gains in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. The Congress has been reduced to power in just three states.

On both chief ministers and seats, the count for regional parties has stayed stable. Nearly every exit poll had predicted a thumping victory for the Congress in Haryana. In the Lok Sabha election in April-June, the Congress set the narrative in a state where an anti-incumbency sentiment prevailed against the BJP and regional