India bond yields little changed; post flattish move for third week
benchmark anchored around 6.85%, as market attention shifts to U.S. economic data expected to influence potential rate cuts.
The benchmark 10-year yield ended at 6.8542%, compared with its previous close of 6.8554%. The yield had ended at 6.8647% last Friday and has stayed in 5 basis points range in three weeks.
The market is awaiting August non-farm payrolls data due after Indian market hours, which most believe would be the deciding factor for the Federal Reserve to opt for a 25 or 50 basis points cut in its September meeting.
Economists polled by Reuters expected 160,000 jobs additions and an unemployment rate at 4.2%.
Markets are fully pricing in a rate cut of at least 25 bps at the Fed's meeting this month, with expectations for a 50 bps remaining above 40%. Traders have also factored in above 110 bps of rate cuts in 2024.
U.S. yields declined this week, with the 10-year yield around 3.70%, as private payrolls showed the smallest increase increased since January 2021 in August and as a weak manufacturing print and a steep drop in U.S. job openings in July boosted hopes of deeper rate cut.
«We expect the US Fed to begin cutting rates by 25 bps at the September meeting, with similar moves in November and December,» said Ketan Parikh, head of fixed income investments at ICICI Prudential Life Insurance.
Domestically, outlook on inflation seems comfortable and growth resilience is giving Reserve Bank of India the space to be more patient and only act once the US Fed has begun its rate cutting trajectory, he
