The next Grand Theft Auto is a lucrative moving target
Big videogames are sometimes called “forever franchises." That certainly describes the wait for some of them. Gamers have been eagerly awaiting a “Grand Theft Auto" sequel since the last one came out more than 10 years ago. Investors have been even more eager since publisher Take-Two Interactive gave a long-term forecast two years ago that strongly suggested the game could launch in the fiscal year that just ended in March.
That obviously didn’t happen. Likewise, a launch in fiscal 2025 that was indicated by the company’s updated outlook last year won’t be happening either. Take-Two on Thursday officially projected net bookings of about $5.6 billion for the current fiscal year, up 5% from the just-ended year but well below the “over $8 billion" the company originally said it would hit.
As part of the forecast, Take-Two said “Grand Theft Auto VI" will launch in the fall of 2025, which falls in its 2026 fiscal year. It is the most specific release window the company has given for the game to date. And it wasn’t a complete surprise—a growing number of analysts were skeptical of a fiscal 2025 launch.
Wall Street’s consensus net bookings projection for the year has slid about 13% over the past six months, according to data from FactSet. Still, Take-Two’s forecast was well below the last published consensus estimate of $6.98 billion for the year. The shift won’t hurt the eventual payoff of what is likely to be the biggest videogame launch in history.
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