Kyiv, 2024 was a nightmare, created in large part by a collapse of the early war’s winning formula: the matching of Ukrainian motivated manpower to sophisticated Western arsenals.
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So does that mean Donald Trump — inaugurated as US President on Monday and fresh from his initial success in securing a Gaza ceasefire — will be pushing at an open door in Ukraine? Absolutely not, at least not on terms the Kremlin is currently willing to consider. That wouldn’t be a peace deal, which Ukrainians want, but capitulation, which they don’t.
This will test Trump’s pledge to deliver peace through strength more than Gaza, where the challenge is hard enough. That’s because, unlike in the Holy Land, in Europe he has a lot more leverage with the weaker party than the stronger.
The faster America’s peacemaker-in-chief wants the fighting to end, the more he’ll need to first strengthen Ukraine’s hand, so as to convince President Vladimir Putin he can only lose by refusing a genuine peace with his neighbor. Conversely, the less committed to Ukraine’s defense Trump appears to be, the less incentive Putin will have to negotiate or compromise.
What a strong hand means in practice is for Ukraine to be able to go on inflicting very high costs on Russia, halt its advance on the ground and for Putin to know it will have the backing to do continue as long as needed. If