How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Judged by the din of Russian propaganda and the despair among some Europeans, Vladimir Putin has never been closer to winning his war on Ukraine. Yet three years after his invasion, it is not clear what “win" means.
His goals are elusive. His “special military operation" was planned in secret. His government was kept in the dark, as were the Russian people.
Mr Putin talks of defending Russian sovereignty, but what happens next depends in part on factors outside his control: politics in Ukraine, Europe’s re-armament effort, and above all Donald Trump. Negotiations with the Trump administration began formally on February 18th in Saudi Arabia. Mr Trump has no clear plan, and his options range from cutting off Ukraine to ramping up military aid and sanctions.
The dance between the American president and Mr Putin took another step in Riyadh, in the first direct meeting between American and Russian officials for three years. They agreed to a nebulous series of negotiations on Ukraine and “mutual geopolitical interests". Preparations will begin for a Trump-Putin summit, although no date was fixed.
These open-ended talks suit Mr Putin just fine. Whereas Mr Trump views them as a way to end a “ridiculous" war, Mr Putin sees them as a stage in a larger conflict, says an American official. The Russian leader calculates he has more staying power than Ukraine or NATO, the creaking Western alliance.
Like a poker player, Mr Putin excels in projecting confidence and strength. In reality, though, his cards are not as strong as he would like his opponents to believe, while an end to the war could create complications for him at home. Any assessment of Russia’s negotiating position should start with the
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