Independent voters, who they are going to vote for, will decide whether Trump or Harris will win the U.S. Elections
Donald Trump will need to make a strong impression. It can be challenging to identify independent voters by nature. All social groups who don't strongly identify as Republicans or Democrats are included in this term, regardless of their circumstances.
Due to the similar local influences, conversations, and policy concerns that shape independent voters, it can be challenging to forecast how independents will vote nationally. However, statewide data may be more insightful.
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Except for Arizona, where Trump leads by a significant +14 points, Harris leads among independents in all of the swing states. The data comes from a series of fresh Morning Consult surveys conducted through September 8. State-by-state variation is evident in the preferences of independent voters for the next president; in the swing states, Harris's lead ranges from +20 points in Wisconsin to just +5 in Pennsylvania.
Independents are not just about swing states. According to the polls, independent voters are supporting Harris in two predominantly Republican states where Trump has won the past two elections. In Florida and Texas, Trump leads by +2 and +9 points, respectively. However, when examining independent voters alone, the numbers shift in favour of Harris winning the presidency, with the Democratic nominee in Florida holding a sizable +10-point advantage.
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