Mint Primer: Making sense of India’s record food production

livemint.com:

Mint explains. Food production in 2022-23 is estimated at a record 329.7 million tonnes, about 4.5% higher than the year before, according to the agriculture ministry. While production of major cereals like rice and wheat rose by 4.9% and 2.6%, production of coarse grains was up a sharp 12%.

Production of pulses fell by 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) but was 6% higher when compared to the five-year average. The estimated rise was despite a 7 million tonnes hit to kharif rice output after subpar rains in rice growing areas, forecast by the ministry in September 2022. Late rains during harvest also damaged crops in several states last October.

In September ’22, the government banned export of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on some varieties, due to an anticipated hit to domestic production. The latest production estimates do not reflect the ground reality of high cereal prices due to which export curbs were tightened further. From July, export curbs on rice were strengthened.

Last year, India had miscalculated its wheat harvest, which was severely blighted due to a heat wave. It had promised to meet a global shortfall in supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But exports were hastily banned—in May 2022—due to a domestic shortfall.

Record production of food grains and export curbs were expected to check prices. But retail inflation in cereals have been in double digits for some time—driven by wheat and rice. Consumer cereal prices, in September, were 11% up y-o-y, and pulses were 16.4% higher.

As on 21 October, retail rice and wheat flour prices were 12.7% and 5% up y-o-y. The first advance estimate of kharif production is usually released in September but is yet to be published. The monsoon this year had the