U.S Elections: Harris has slight edge but this state is key for victory, says Goldman Sachs

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a very close race. The fact that both candidates frequently move up in the polls indicates how close the contest is. When President Joe Biden was still in the campaign, Trump first seemed to be in the lead. But Biden's withdrawal in mid-July altered the situation. After stepping up, Harris caught up to Trump and eventually overtook him in August, as per the reports of Yahoo finance.

Crucial swing state: Georgia

Despite her recent narrow lead, Harris's position remains uncertain, particularly in Georgia. Goldman Sachs analysts believe Georgia, with its 16 electoral votes, is the key state that could decide the election. They noted that Harris could win the presidency by securing either Georgia or Pennsylvania. In contrast, Trump would need to win both states to secure victory. This makes Georgia's role in the election critical under Goldman’s assumptions.

Shifting polls

Goldman Sachs analysts, Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa, observed that after Harris's surge in August, Trump has been making slight gains nationally and in Georgia. The polling averages in swing states have shifted significantly, making it unclear which state might deliver the winning electoral vote. Seven states, with a combined 100 electoral votes, are currently within a 2 percentage point margin, indicating an extremely close race.

Prediction markets and polls

Prediction markets, which reflect betting activity rather than voter surveys, show Trump narrowly pulling ahead for the first time since July.