Kamala Harris' lead over Trump just 1.6 points, within margin of error of 3.1%
ActiVote poll conducted between August 25 and September 2 indicates that Kamala Harris's lead over Donald Trump has decreased to just 1.6 points. Trump currently holds 49.2 percent of the vote, while Harris has 50.8 percent. This narrow advantage is within the 3.1 percent margin of error for the poll, suggesting a close contest. This represents a considerable decline from Harris's 5-point advantage in the previous ActiVote survey, which was completed by 1,000 potential voters between August 15 and August 23, as per the reports of MSN.
Steady decline in Harris' numbers
Victor Allis, an ActiVote pollster, pointed out that Harris’ poll numbers had seen steady improvement for three to four weeks after Joe Biden exited the race. For about two weeks, she maintained a 5-point lead over Trump. However, in the last five days, this lead has gradually decreased to less than 2 percent. The Harris and Trump campaigns have not yet responded to requests for comment regarding these developments.
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Electoral College outlook shifting
Nate Silver’s forecast model has also shown signs of trouble for Harris. On Friday, Silver's model indicated Trump leading Harris in the Electoral College for the first time since early August. The model now gives Trump a 52.4 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, slightly higher than Harris’s 47.3 percent. Silver cautioned that the difference between a 52/48 and a 48/52 race is
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